What Makes This US Shutdown Different (and More Intractable)?
Government closures have become a recurring feature of US politics – but this one feels especially difficult to resolve due to shifting political forces and bad blood between both major parties.
Some government services face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats can't agree regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path in this instance because both parties – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in digging in.
These are several key factors that make this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods that their party more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show they have listened.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown early this year. This time he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk that the wider public may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support and GOP-backed federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have openly indicated their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the shutdown provided him with a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the halting of government financial support for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved late-night talks between the two parties aimed at restoring federal operations, there appears to be little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Instead, animosity prevails. The bad blood persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and maintaining positions over a deal "to get political cover".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, stating how a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The President himself has inflamed the situation by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, where the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough due to the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors and other kinds of government activity connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability into an economy already being roiled from multiple factors including tariffs, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why financial markets have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.
Conversely, experts indicate that if administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be more long-lasting.